You analyze data. You consider options. You weigh pros and cons.

Then you make a decision that, six months later, looks obviously wrong.

How did you miss it?

Here's what nobody tells you: intelligence doesn't prevent bad decisions. Sometimes it makes them worse.

Smart people have more tools to rationalize bad choices. They build elaborate justifications. They find data that supports what they already want to believe. They confuse complexity with correctness.

The dumbest decisions I've made weren't from lack of thinking. They were from thinking in the wrong direction. I had all the information I needed. I just filtered it through biases I didn't know I had.

Being smart doesn't make you immune to cognitive traps. It makes you better at falling into them with confidence.

I've watched this pattern across decisions in business, relationships, and career moves. The same traps show up everywhere.

You've invested time, money, or effort into something. It's not working. But you keep going because you've already invested so much.

This shows up everywhere:

You've spent 6 months building a product nobody wants. But you keep building because "I've already put in so much work."

You've been creating content on a platform for a year with zero traction. But you keep posting because "I can't waste all that effort."

You hired someone who isn't performing. But you keep them because "I've already trained them for 3 months."

The investment is already gone. Continuing doesn't recover it. It just adds more loss on top.

Smart people fall into this trap because they're good at calculating investment. They track what they've put in. They feel the weight of past decisions.

But past investment should never drive future decisions. The only question that matters: If I started today with zero investment, would I make this same choice?

If no, stop. The sunk cost is already lost.

You have a hypothesis. You look for evidence. You find plenty that supports your view.

You ignore everything that contradicts it.

Smart people do this more effectively than anyone else. They're better at finding supporting evidence. They're better at dismissing contradictory data as "outliers" or "exceptions."

I've done this building offers. I believed a certain type of product would sell. I found 5 people who said "yes, I'd buy that." I ignored the 50 who said "maybe" or "probably not."

I built the product. It didn't sell. I was shocked.

I shouldn't have been. I saw only the data I wanted to see.

The fix isn't to eliminate bias. You can't. The fix is to actively hunt for disconfirming evidence before you commit.

Ask: What would prove me wrong? Then go look for it. If you can't find it, you might be right. If you find it easily, you're probably wrong.